Bucharest Diary

Monday, June 27, 2005

Dolarul: moneda noastra, problema voastra

Interesant articol despre privilegiul pe care dolarul il confera Statelor Unite. Daca pica moneda americana au mai mult de pierdut chinezii, japonezii si (mult mai putin de cind cu euro) europenii decit americanii. Intr-un fel restul lumii va pati ca pensionarii romani dupa revolutie care s-au ales cu o pensie de rahat dupa 20-30 de ani de munca pentru ca guvernul a lasat moneda sa pice. In acelasi fel America are interesul sa vada dolarul cazind ca sa isi reduca imensa datorie externa. Astazi America consuma pe fiecare zi aproximativ 25-30 de miliarde de dolari mai mult decit produce. Pe fiecare zi America are nevoie sa imprumute mai mult decit poate imprumuta Romania in 15 ani.
Tributul dat de China si Japonia Americii e sub forma exporturilor ieftine platite cu hirtii verzi care isi pierd valoarea prin depreciere si prin inflatie:

"Even the gloomiest pessimists accept that a steep dollar depreciation would inflict more suffering on China and other Asian economies than on the United States. John Snow's predecessor in the Nixon administration once told his European counterparts that 'the dollar is our currency, but your problem.' Snow could say the same to Asians today. If the dollar fell by a third against the renminbi, according to Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University, the People's Bank of China could suffer a capital loss equivalent to 10 percent of China's gross domestic product. For that reason alone, the PBOC has every reason to carry on printing renminbi in order to buy dollars.

Although neither side wants to admit it, today's Sino-American economic relationship has an imperial character. Empires, remember, traditionally collect 'tributes' from subject peoples. That is how their costs in terms of blood and treasure can best be justified to the populace back in the imperial capital. Today's 'tribute' is effectively paid to the American empire by China and other East Asian economies in the form of underpriced exports and low-interest, high-risk loans."
(vezi link-ul catre articolul lui Niall Ferguson)

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